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About The Author:
John Schroder of Ascot Advisory Services writes articles for a number of publications and e-zines regarding topics and issues of interest or concern to clients.  As an expatriate himself, John has lived abroad for many years, and assists clients with services related to the topics on this web site.
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Our December 15, 2009 Newsletter Edition
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IN THE NEWS:
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LATIN AMERICA: McCAFE GROWS
BY Mary Tabion – December 2, 2009
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McDonald’s is synonymous with burgers around the world, and Latin America is no exception. The U.S.-based fast food chain ranks first in fast food burger restaurants in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Venezuela. Just as consumers in the United States look to the Golden Arches for fast and economical lunches, workers in Latin America also are on the lookout for appetizing meals that fit their budgets.
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While the lunchtime trade is a lucrative business, McDonald’s has been eyeing another opportunity to grow its day-part business outside of lunch in Latin America. The McCafé concept is McDonald’s take on the local café culture, offering not only traditional and European coffee drinks, but local treats, such as pastries, cakes, confectionery items, ice cream or other snacks. Rather than cannibalizing McDonald’s lunch business, McCafé is attracting consumers looking for a coffee break, a place to socialize or a merienda. McCafé revenues in Latin America reached $55.2 million in 2008.
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http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/
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EDITORS NOTES: We present this item as a follow up to the news story mentioned in the last newsletter regarding Krispy Kreme.  Which is to explain, American food chains are expanding everyplace but the US, simply because that is where the money and growth is.  And of course since we are on the topic of where the money is, you may be interested in the following recent comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke (see next news item below).
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BERNANKE CHANNELS WILLIE SUTTON IN ASSAULT ON SOCIAL SECURITY: THAT'S WHERE THE MONEY IS - - By Ryan Grim - December 3, 2009
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Ben Bernanke has overseen the greatest expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in its history, pouring trillions of dollars into Wall Street firms at roughly zero interest rates.  His generosity, however, has a limit.  In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today, where he's seeking re-appointment as the Fed's chairman, Bernanke called for cutbacks in Medicare and Social Security even as unemployment rises and the middle class is endangered.  Citing legendary bank robber Willie Sutton, Bernanke said of the retirement and health care funds that are the legacy of the New Deal: That's where the money is.
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/03/bernanke-channels-willie_n_378963.html
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EDITORS NOTES:  The head of the US Central Bank quoting one of the more famous American bank robbers is quite ironic to say the least, but you should no longer be shocked or surprised at this point (maybe both these guys, meaning Willie Sutton and Ben Bernanke, are kindred spirits?).  In any event, while Bernanke suggests cutting Social Security because that is where the money is, the following item would offer quite a different point of view.
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WATCHING SOCIAL SECURITY EAT THE YOUNG ALIVE
By Bill Frezza – December 7, 2009
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My 26 year old son got the most extraordinary letter from the Social Security Administration last week. In plain English it admitted that the system was a Ponzi scheme destined for bankruptcy more than a decade before he reaches retirement age. It warned that if he is to have any hope of retiring he'd better start saving on his own. Anyone who wasn't personally hypnotized by FDR knows this to be true. Yet I was still surprised that such a frank government confession didn't make national news.
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The two-page pamphlet entitled What young workers should know about Social Security and saving reminds us that 50 million, or one in six, Americans will collect more than $614 Billion dollars in Social Security benefits this year. It informs young people that the Security Taxes they now pay go into a Trust Fund that is used to pay current beneficiaries. Paying off early investors with funds taken from later investors is precisely how Wikipedia defines a Ponzi scheme. The pamphlet advises that the Social Security Board of Trustees estimates that the Trust Fund will be depleted before my son's 54th birthday. Because people are living longer and the birth rate is low, it goes on, taxes paid by workers in the future will not be enough to pay the benefits promised in his personalized retirement account statement enclosed with the pamphlet. Imagine what hell would break loose if Schwab or Fidelity Investments enclosed a confession like this when they mailed investors their 401(k) statements.
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On top of the negative rate of return young people paying into Social Security are expected to suffer, the pamphlet concludes that my son should plan on taking an additional 24% haircut on the benefits promised in his statement.  Given the fact that Social Security will be bankrupt before my son even reaches my age, the pamphlet directs him to a handy web calculator that shows how much he will have to save every week if he hopes to retire on his own.
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http://www.realclearmarkets.com/
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EDITORS NOTES:  In the words of Edward R. Murrow, Good Night and Good Luck.
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CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT IS PREDICTED BY FED CHIEF
By Edmund L. Andrews - November 16, 2009
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The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, warned on Monday that high unemployment and a continued reluctance by banks to make loans were likely to slow the economic recovery for the next year.  And in a departure from the usual practice of Fed chairmen, Mr. Bernanke tried to reassure global investors about the recent fall in the value of the dollar by saying that the central bank was attentive to the implications of changes and would continue to monitor these developments closely.  It is rare for Fed officials to comment on exchange rates, which for decades have been the responsibility of the Treasury Department. Mr. Bernanke’s message seemed to be that the Fed saw no cause for alarm in the dollar’s weakness and that it would not need to bolster the dollar by raising interest rates sooner than it would otherwise.
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http://www.nytimes.com/
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EDITORS NOTES:  First off, we think it quite clear and apparent that the game plan is to devalue the US Dollar, albeit in a somewhat managed fashion, if that is possible.  Some economic commentators are predicting to expect this devaluation  to take hold in 2010, or better said, look for some fireworks towards the end of next year.  Of course, Mr. Bernanke sees no cause for alarm regarding a future semi-worthless greenback, just as the Wizard of Oz attempts to instruct Dorothy and friends to pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.  However, also of interest are some of the other comments from the Wizard of The Fed, who goes on to opine that: Unemployment, now 10.2 percent, is likely to remain quite high for the next year and will tamp down both growth and inflation (actually unemployment is closer to 20 percent nationally and possibly 30 percent in California, but we shall leave that alone for now).  Mr. Bernanke goes on to say that: The best thing we can say about the labor market right now is that it may be getting worse more slowly (end of quote).  Getting worse more slowly?  Is a proper analogy one whereby the doctor says: I have some good news and some bad news?  The bad news is, you still have cancer.  The good news is, I predict you will pass away in 18 months, and not the six months we predicted previously.  Aren't you pleased?
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In any event, CNN recently reported on November 20, 2009 that The Congressional Budget Office is estimating that: More than half of the $9 trillion in NEW debt that Uncle Sam is expected to build up over the next decade will be interest. Which is to explain, US$4.8 Trillion Dollars will be interest, as a conservative estimate.  Maybe that is why they want to devalue the US Dollar?  To pay off all that debt with proverbial funny money?  Société Générale, a major French bank, seems to think so.  In a recent report they issued to clients, the French bank goes on to say that: state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.  They continue with the comment that: Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils. So-Gen (as Société Générale is called in financial circles) happens to also advise it's own clients to dump the US Dollar tout suite.  Vive La France.
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Also of interest is the previous nationalization of Fannie-Mae and Freddie Mac, as it pertains to other things yet to come.  Naturally, they do not call it that exactly, but what term would you use when the Federal Government owns 80 percent of what was previously a private company (with stock trading on the NYSE)?  The point of all this, or the next shoe to drop as they say, involves The Federal Housing Administration.  Which is to explain that we will throw our hat in with those that have predicted the FHA, which is on precarious financial footing at the moment (and we are being kind), to wallow into the abyss along with it's cousins Fannie and Freddie.  Keep your eyes and ears focused, as the FHA will probably be the next black hole in which to pour even more tax-payer money.
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And that leads us to remind those readers who have been reading our newsletter for a few years now, to recall our previous comments about a coming national sales tax in the US.  Which is to say, State and Local Municipal Income taxes could be going up (they have no choice as these non-federal government entities cannot print money, and taxes based upon real estate values are a hot button issue at the moment considering all the declining real estate prices), plus the idea of higher national income taxes certainly is a political hot potato on the national level (although look out for other kinds of stealth taxes against income, such as higher social security contributions).  However, a national sales tax, or otherwise known in other countries as a Value Added Tax (VAT), is currently on the table as a political option thanks to the current cabal of esteemed gentlemen (and ladies) in the US Congress.  The New York Times reports as much in the recent December 10, 2009 news article titled:  Many See the VAT Option as a Cure for Deficits.  The New York Times goes on to quote Mr. Charles E. McLure, a tax economist from the Reagan administration, who says that: We have to start paying our bills eventually, this strikes me as the best and most obvious way of doing it (end of quote).  As Mr. Ripley would say: Believe It, or Not.       
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A TALE OF TWO AMERICAN ECONOMIES
By Nouriel Roubini – November 17, 2009
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While the United States recently reported 3.5 per cent GDP growth in the third quarter, suggesting that the most severe recession since the Great Depression is over, the American economy is actually much weaker than official data suggest. In fact, official measures of GDP may grossly overstate growth in the economy, as they don't capture the fact that business sentiment among small firms is abysmal and their output is still falling sharply. Properly corrected for this, third-quarter GDP may have been 2 per cent rather than 3.5 per cent.  The story of the U.S. is, indeed, one of two economies. There is a smaller one that is slowly recovering and a larger one that is still in a deep and persistent downturn.
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Consider the following facts. While America's official unemployment rate is already 10.2 per cent, the figure jumps to a whopping 17.5 per cent when discouraged workers and partially employed workers are included. And, while data from firms suggest that job losses in the past three months were about 600,000, household surveys, which include self-employed workers and small entrepreneurs, suggest a number above two million.  Many of the lost jobs – in construction, finance, and outsourced manufacturing and services – are gone forever, and recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs can be fully outsourced over time to other countries. Thus, a growing proportion of the work force – often below the radar screen of official statistics – is losing hope of finding gainful employment, while the unemployment rate (especially for poor, unskilled workers) will remain high for a much longer period of time than in previous recessions.
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To be sure, the U.S. government is increasing its budget deficits to put a floor under demand. But most state and local governments that have experienced a collapse in tax revenues must sharply retrench spending by firing policemen, teachers and firefighters while also cutting welfare benefits and social services for the poor. Many state and local governments in poorer regions are at risk of bankruptcy without a massive federal bailout.
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/
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EDITORS NOTES: As we have suggested previously, many US state and local governments are insolvent, or otherwise said, simply broke, and we would suggest the US Federal Government is not far behind.  Case in point is Merrillville, Indiana – which is reportedly one year delinquent in it's local electric utility bill payments (and they will be turning off the public street lights, literally, for the good people of Merrillville).  Supposedly the town council there will be turning off the street lights in order to save US$2,000 per month on the town's electric bill.  Let us analyze this for a moment, and ask the question: how broke are these people (and the rest of the United States)?  Merrillville is a town with a population of about 30,000.  And let us assume that two thirds of the town are children, so maybe we are talking about 10,000 adults.  If each adult in the town coughed up an additional 25 cents per month, then presumably they could keep the street lamps on.  And so, the real question is: in one of the so-called wealthiest nations on the planet, with supposedly one of the highest standards of living in the world, they cannot afford to keep the street lights on at night?
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Moving right along with another example, let us not forget the very recent bargain basement sale of the Detroit Pontiac Silverdome, which was sold for the greatly reduced price of $583,000.  We say greatly reduced as an understatement because the facility was build in 1975 at a cost of US$55 Million Dollars.  I guess Detroit desperately needs the money (talk about a discounted fire sale).
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Regardless, you can be sure both at the State, Municipal and Federal levels that the hunt will be on for more revenue (and that means much higher taxes for the average, still currently employed, tax-payer). Of course you might be thinking that taxation rates will be going up for major US corporations, but you would be wrong (in our opinion).  As one blatant example, Goldman Sachs is on tract to report the most profitable year (2009) in it's entire history and has set aside almost US$17 Billion Dollars in bonus money for it's employees (that is Billion, with a B). Now with all that profitability, you would think they would be giving their proverbial pound of flesh to the US Treasury (via it's collection agent, the US Internal Revenue Service), but again, you could be wrong.  To clarify this, Bloomberg news recently reports that Goldman Sachs will have a tax rate of about 1 percent for the 2008 fiscal year (and we can assume for 2009 as well).  By the way, that is not a typographical error, you did read it correctly: ONE PERCENT.
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The Bloomberg news service goes on to quote Mr. Robert Willens, president and chief executive officer of a tax and accounting firm of the same name, who says that (in terms of Goldman Sachs): Clearly they have taken steps to ensure that a lot of their income is earned in lower-tax jurisdictions.  Even Goldman Sachs themselves claim the greatly reduced tax rate is due to: changes in geographic earnings mix.  Bloomberg goes on to quote U.S. Representative Lloyd Doggett, a Texas Democrat who serves on the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, who says that steps by Goldman Sachs and other banks shifting income to countries with lower taxes is cause for concern (end of quote).  Of concern?  Maybe, but yet it goes on.  And why is nothing said?  Because major financial services firms, including banking concerns, pony up the lion's share of political campaign money.  However, as the old saying goes, if you cannot beat, then join them.  In other words, Change Your Tax Domicile, and Lower Your Taxes.  If they can do it, you can do it.  The other option of course is to remain behind and go broke.  This line of thinking appears to be perhaps selfish, unpatriotic (according to some), and incorrect in terms of a true and tangible long term solution.  However, do you honestly see anything changing for the better?  Do you really believe the middle class or small businessmen are going to be protected or helped by politicians, in terms of the economic fallout from all this nonsense?  Who will pay for all these bailouts, increased government spending and the resultant inflation (and other fallout) from a devalued currency?  Why do the solvent and prudent have to suffer and pay for the foolish and irresponsible?  Why kind of behavior is being rewarded when any government takes this kind of tact? 
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WAVE OF DEBT PAYMENTS FACING U.S. GOVERNMENT
By Edmund L. Andrews - November 22, 2009
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The United States government is financing its more than trillion-dollar-a-year borrowing with I.O.U.’s on terms that seem too good to be true.  But that happy situation, aided by ultra-low interest rates, may not last much longer.   Treasury officials now face a trifecta of headaches: a mountain of new debt, a balloon of short-term borrowings that come due in the months ahead, and interest rates that are sure to climb back to normal as soon as the Federal Reserve decides that the emergency has passed.
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Even as Treasury officials are racing to lock in today’s low rates by exchanging short-term borrowings for long-term bonds, the government faces a payment shock similar to those that sent legions of overstretched homeowners into default on their mortgages.  With the national debt now topping $12 trillion, the White House estimates that the government’s tab for servicing the debt will exceed $700 billion a year in 2019, up from $202 billion this year, even if annual budget deficits shrink drastically. Other forecasters say the figure could be much higher.
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http://www.nytimes.com/
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EDITORS NOTES:  While we are admittedly not always a big fan of the things that come from Bill Gross, we do agree with the following quote that was highlighted in the above article:  What a good country or a good squirrel should be doing is stashing away nuts for the winter. The United States is not only not saving nuts, it’s eating the ones left over from the last winter (end of quote).
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We will expand upon that:  A good squirrel (meaning the average middle class person) probably should not only be saving their nuts (both literally and figuratively), but doing so in another country and in another currency, or better still, hard assets that act as a counter balance to inflation (gold, silver and real estate that is not over priced – in other countries, all comes to mind).  What we are seeing at the moment is some aspects of deflation (falling real estate prices in the US and US banks that are contracting credit lines for both consumers and business) BUT all this new debt and fiat funny money being printed will lead to currency devaluation, AKA inflation.  At the moment, all that monopoly money they have created is going into bank coffers and to prop up the bond markets, but the real story is the monetizing of debt, and resultant outcome for the longer term.    
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MORGAN STANLEY FEARS UK SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS IN 2010
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard – November 30, 2009
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Britain risks becoming the first country in the G10 bloc of major economies to risk capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis over coming months, according to a client note by Morgan Stanley.  The US investment bank said there is a danger Britain’s toxic mix of problems will come to a head as soon as next year, triggered by fears that Westminster may prove unable to restore fiscal credibility. In an extreme situation a fiscal crisis could lead to some domestic capital flight, severe pound weakness and a sell-off in UK government bonds. The Bank of England may feel forced to hike rates to shore up confidence in monetary policy and stabilize the currency, threatening the fragile economic recovery, they said.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
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EDITORS NOTES:  Are you surprised?  You should not be, and the US may certainly be sailing in the very same proverbial waters.  On a related note, and in line with this theme of capital flight, the indefatigable House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently endorsed the concept of a new global tax on financial transactions.  The lovely Ms. Pelosi was quoted (via a press conference) as saying that: the financial transactions tax (HR4191) currently before Congress would have to be made global to keep U.S. investors from taking their business overseas and out of taxable reach (end of quote).  Please allow me to repeat that comment once again for clarity: TO KEEP U.S. INVESTORS FROM TAKING THEIR BUSINESS OVERSEAS AND OUT OF TAXABLE REACH.  Is Nancy actually admitting that once the money takes a vacation abroad (outside of the US), that it is out of their reach?  And why oh why would any other country want to tax, or otherwise dissuade and discourage, foreign investors?  We are not quite sure if Ms. Pelosi supports the recent initiative to legalize and tax marijuana, but she surely must be smoking something if she believes all other countries are interested in raising taxes to stop US citizens from investing there.    
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Of course, the option to banking or investing abroad is to keep your investment funds at home (inside the US).  But, recent news items indicate that the US FDIC banking insurance fund is now officially BROKE, as of September 2009, and that the FDIC has tapped an US$80 Billion Dollar line of credit with the US Treasury to cover the rash of bank failures expected in 2010. Which is to say, the 100 plus bank failures for 2009 are predicted to be a start and not the end of all this, with many, many more to come (or at least the FDIC seems to think so, and they should know).
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Maybe your 2010 New Year's resolution should be to get the heck out of the US Dollar and the Pound Sterling.  That is perhaps the bad news.  The good news is, there are other places to put your money, your assets, and yourself in order to get some protection from all this nonsense.  However, just make sure you have another passport as the modus operandi at the moment is to try and pressure financial institutions abroad NOT to accept US or EU citizens.  Then again, who says you have to necessarily be a US or EU citizen?  Dual citizenship and a second passport is not only a possibility, but perhaps now a coming necessity.
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THE COMING WAVE OF DEBT DEFAULTS
By Sam Rovit and David Sweig – December 8, 2009
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The worst is not yet past. Be prepared.  The trouble in the commercial real estate markets is getting ugly, as the precarious situation of Dubai World has made all too clear.  Expect many more unpleasant situations like that one.
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Speculative-grade debt issuers are bracing for the default rate to hit 12% to 14% by the end of 2009, according to our projections at Bain & Company. The last time the U.S. economy experienced default rates of that magnitude was 28 years ago. The current long-term average default rate is 4.5%; as recently as 2007, it was just under 1%. These failures are not limited to small or marginal firms; they are happening at large companies with at least $100 million in assets, and have, after all, already hit legendary businesses like General Motors, Lehman Brothers and General Growth Properties.
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In aggregate, default rates will probably peak this year, but above-average default rates will last through 2011, since defaults historically lag changes in gross domestic product by 12 to 18 months. Like depth charges, defaults will continue to explode as cash positions sink, even as the economy recovers. By the end of this year, we will have seen nearly 300 speculative-grade issuers default on their debt in 2008 and 2009; only 116 did in the four years between 2004 and 2007. Yet as many as 300 more companies are likely to default by the end of 2011, and that could increase if current GDP expectations prove too optimistic. This could hit commercial real estate particularly hard since cash flows there are tightly linked to employment growth, making prolonged high unemployment an additional challenge on top of other economic woes.
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http://www.forbes.com/
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EDITORS NOTES:  When Forbes Magazine starts opining gloom and doom, it either means that pessimism among the American business community has hit an all time high (and some would argue a buying opportunity) OR the mainstream business media is finally reporting what is really and truly going on.  Regardless, 2010 does not look like it is shaping up to be a banner year for the US, economically speaking.  Of course, across the Pacific, the New York Times reports a different story for China (see below).
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RECESSION ELSEWHERE, BUT IT'S BOOMING IN CHINA
By Keith Bradsher - December 9, 2009
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For the first time, Chinese will buy more cars this year than Americans. Demand is so high that drivers put their names on long waiting lists for the most popular models.  I’m disappointed, but what can I do? asked Zhang Ge Lu, a 28-year-old interior designer. He came recently with two friends to a row of dealerships here in southeastern China to buy a black Toyota RAV4, only to be told that he would have to wait two months for delivery.
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And it is not just cars. For more and more consumer goods, China is surpassing the United States as the world’s biggest market — from cars to refrigerators to washing machines, even desktop computers. The Chinese market is on full tilt — booming is an understatement these days, said John Bonnell, the director of Asia vehicle forecasting at J.D. Power & Associates.
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China is pulling ahead at this particular moment partly because Americans, debt-laden and worried about their jobs, are pulling back. After decades of gorging on consumption, Americans are saving. And the Chinese, whom economists thought were addicted to saving, are spending more.  Among China’s 1.3 billion people, rising incomes are finally making large numbers of Chinese prosperous enough to make big-ticket purchases.
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http://www.nytimes.com/
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EDITORS NOTES:  McDonald’s and Krispy Kreme are expanding in Latin America (because that is where the money is).  The economy in Brazil is plugging along quite well, thank you very much.  And Chinese consumers are waiting two months to buy a Toyota, because of the high demand (and regardless if they pay cash, they still have to wait).  Are you starting to get the picture?
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Looking at the Dominican Republic, they supposedly do not have all the things they have in the wealthy, modern, first world countries (such as no money down liar loans), but they do have plenty of Rice and Sugar.  What is the point?  Well, according to a recent news article (December 14, 2009) by Bloomberg, it is reported that rice is expected to go up in price by 63 percent and JP Morgan claims that sugar will be going up by about 25 percent as well.  Could this be the coming price inflation for commodities priced in US Dollars (courtesy of US Dollar Inflation, or devaluation if you prefer) that is finally now making itself known?  Regardless, Mr. Oliver Kratz, Who is the head of Global Thematic Strategy investments at Deutsche Bank AG’s DB Advisors in New York, claims that: Agricultural commodities will be a great investment in the next three to five years (end of quote).  In terms of the Dominican Republic, and to quote the punch line from a popular American television announcement:  Yeah, we got that.
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DRUG MONEY SAVED BANKS IN GLOBAL CRISIS, CLAIMS UN ADVISOR
By Rajeev Syal – December 13, 2009
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Drugs money worth billions of dollars kept the financial system afloat at the height of the global crisis, the United Nations' drugs and crime tsar has told the Observer.  Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organized crime were the only liquid investment capital available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/
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EDITORS NOTES:  Drug money saved some of the banks?  Is that why the US now wants to legalize and tax cannabis (because that is where the money is)?  In any event, the above article goes on to say that: Mr. Costa declined to identify countries or banks that may have received any drug money, saying that would be inappropriate because his office is supposed to address the problem, not apportion blame (end of quote).  Of course, we are not so shy, and this UN report on drug money in the financial system, which was prepared by Mr. Costa and released earlier this year, specifically cites the money center banks in New York and London as being the conduits for such illicit funds.  So there you go.  Despite all the chatter about banks in so-called tax havens being hotbeds of illegal and illicit activity, the United Nations squarely puts the blame on banks in the US and the UK.
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Why is it that there is never any hesitation to blatantly accuse the financial authorities in Panama, The Bahamas, Etcetera, Etcetera when it comes to supposed complicity with banking clients that may be involved with illicit activities, and yet when it happens in New York or London, a sudden timidity emerges.  Years ago I remember when the rumors were circulating on Wall Street about the Bank of New York laundering money for the Russian Mafia.  Even the guy that sold bagels and coffee from a pushcart on the corner of Water Street and Wall could bend your ear about the subject.  And it went on for years, until finally, probably about 10 years later, all of a sudden the US authorities swooped down.  To tell the truth, it was probably the worst thing that could have happened.  I mean, I hate to say it, but financial backing by the Russian Mob has to be better than FDIC.  You never heard of the Russian Mob going broke – have you?
© Ascot Advisory Services 2009

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