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John Schroder of Ascot Advisory Services writes articles for a number of publications and e-zines regarding topics and issues of interest or concern to clients.  As an expatriate himself, John has lived abroad for many years, and assists clients with services related to the topics on this web site.
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Our April 20, 2007 Newsletter Edition
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IN THE NEWS:
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STATE DEPARTMENT WARNS: BE CAREFUL OVERSEAS - March 30, 2007
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As if you needed reminding: It's dangerous out there. And if your parents' warnings that the world is full of malevolent people and mishap-prone places didn't stick, the State Department is ready to fill the void.  From the spectacular to the mundane, while terrorism grabs headlines, most problems faced by Americans abroad have nothing to do with al-Qaida but rather cutthroat con artists, corrupt officers and dismal drivers.  The colorful quirks of foreign lands, be they unscrupulous cabaret girls in Cyprus or the arbitrary enforcement of unwritten laws in Laos, are laid bare each year in safety and security reports compiled by State Department analysts for every country on Earth.  The department puts them online, mainly for employees of U.S. firms doing business abroad but are available to anyone. According to this year's updates:  Driving in Qatar is (like) participating in an extreme sport, Police involvement in criminal activity is both legendary and true in Mexico, Be aware of drink prices in Croatia's gentlemen's clubs, where tourists can unknowingly run up exorbitant bar bills, sometimes in the thousands of dollars.  But unflattering descriptions of countries are not uncommon.  The tragedy of Haiti is that Haitians have become great leaders in every profession and in every country, with the exception of Haiti, says the report for the impoverished Caribbean nation, warning that trained personnel are lacking to respond to any emergency.  In deadpan fashion, another report praises Maltese authorities at the expense of the Mediterranean island's closest neighbor.  Despite Malta's geographic proximity to Italy, organized crime is almost nonexistent, it says.  Although deadly, the Mafia, along with natural disasters and terrorists, should be the least of your worries outside the United States.  Automobile accidents cause the biggest portion of non-natural, non-combat deaths of Americans abroad, accounting for nearly a third of the more than 2,000 cases reported to the State Department between 2004 and 2006.  After accidents, assaults, suicides, and drowning are the next leading causes of U.S. civilian deaths overseas, according to the State Department. Terrorist attacks claim far fewer American lives, it says.  Yet there are perhaps less well-known dangers lurking beyond U.S. borders - Even the staid environs and clockwork efficiency of Switzerland can be risky, the analysts say.  Being surrounded by the majestic, snow-covered Alps, combined with a pervasive sense of orderliness, it is understandable that travelers might forget that the city of Geneva and the adjacent cantons are not immune from crime, the report on Swiss security says.
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http://wfrv.com/topstories/topstories_story_089092701.html
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EDITORS NOTES:  There is crime in Switzerland and US citizens should be on guard in the city of Geneva?  Switzerland is a less well-known lurking danger according to US State Department analysts?  Say it isn't so.  You have got to love these guys from the US State Department and thank goodness American taxpayer funds are hard at work to provide these valuable services (and jobs to these guys), otherwise these poor jokers might end up working the graveyard shift writing monologues for Jay Leno.  Of course, if you believe everything that they have to say, you would be afraid to go anywhere.  In addition, they publish common sense as some sort of super selective highly thought out investigated intelligence.  Here are some truths for you - Any place there are people, there is crime, and any place there are lots of people (such as in a big city) there tends to be more crime.  Of course the real question is - Is there more crime, less crime, or about the same in terms of where you live at the moment?  For example, Washington D.C. is the murder capital of the United States, aside from being the nations capital as well.  Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands get top honors for theft, robberies and violent crime in general for the entire Caribbean.  Crooked cops?  Well, New Orleans takes the cake there, with uniformed police officers robbing stores in broad daylight, and putting the stuff into the trunks of police cars during Hurricane Katrina.  I find it hard to believe that the police in Mexico are that bad, but then again - who knows?  And what about Credit Card theft?  A few years ago there was a news story about a hotel clerk in the Holiday Inn located near Newark Airport who was stealing credit card information from the guests.  It took about 8 months or so to catch the guy as someone figured out all the victims stayed at the Holiday Inn.  The Holiday Inn - is nothing sacred anymore?  Yes, the bogeyman is out there, and he is always located in a foreign country don't-cha know.  The American Express Company used to have a slogan - never leave home without it.  The motto of the US State Department would seem to be - just never leave home.  Oh, and by the way, beware of the Swiss (I wonder what the Swiss tell their citizens when contemplating a visit to America?).
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HUMAN CAPITAL - Sunday, 01 April 2007
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In common with much of the economy, growth in the Middle East banking and finance sector is growing so fast that it is putting great demands on resources. In this case, however, the shortage is in skilled staff. As local banks expand into new services and multinational institutions move into the region, they will have to adopt new strategies to find and attract the right people.  Jennifer Telfer, HR leader, Deloitte & Touche Dubai, says: Supply in the GCC region is very limited.  Our recruitment is not just in banking and finance, but for accountants and auditors, and we've had to spread our net much wider than the GCC.  Lucrative packages, as well as low or non-existent tax rates in many Middle East countries, are undoubtedly an attraction for many people coming from overseas, but Van Meir says that people increasingly come to develop their careers, rather than just their bank balances.  Boutiques as well as banks are now developing more and more interesting services and products, and that is attracting people.  Professionals now see Dubai as an interesting career move, rather than just a lifestyle choice, she says.  It's no longer so that Dubai is the end of the road. In the past, people wouldn't necessarily have expected to be able to step back into the London, Frankfurt or Singapore markets, but I don't think that is necessarily true anymore.
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http://www.arabianbusiness.com/
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EDITORS NOTES:  So, we now hear that the banking sector is booming in the Middle East, and that bank employees are in short supply in Dubai.  In fact, unlike declining wages in other markets, bankers are in such short supply in this Arab country that it has actually pushed salaries up.  So if the banking industry is doing so well there (and other places, such as India and China) - what is going on elsewhere in the banking industry?  Let us take a look.
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PNC PREPARES FOR LAYOFFS - By Katie Arcieri, April 3, 2007
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PNC Financial Services Group Inc. is preparing to potentially lay off hundreds of people following the completion of its $6 billion purchase of Mercantile Bankshares Corp. last month.  The layoffs stem from PNC's plan to save about $100 million in operating costs, probably through job cuts throughout the Mercantile network, which includes Citizens National Bank, Mercantile Bank and Trust and Annapolis Banking and Trust.  PNC spokesman Fred Solomon said he didn't know how many employees would be affected in Anne Arundel County and Annapolis. He said the majority of cuts will be back-office and support positions, such as data entry and accounting.
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http://www.hometownannapolis.com/
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CITIGROUP TO LAYOFF THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES
By Marie Coronel - 03/26/2007
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Citigroup announced Monday it's planning to lay off thousands of people around the world; it's also one of the largest employers in the region.  The financial services company plans to get rid of as many as 15,000 high cost jobs.  It's part of a plan to change the focus outside of the United States.
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http://www.nbc25.com/
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CITIGROUP TO DOUBLE OUTLETS IN CHINA - By Andrew Yeh in Beijing - March 29, 2007
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Citigroup, the world's largest bank by market capitalization, plans to double its China outlets to more than 30 by the end of this year, chairman and chief executive Chuck Prince said in Beijing on Thursday.  The bank has 16 outlets in China, mostly in modern cities along the eastern coast. The newest branch will be opened in the city of Hangzhou, which lies a short distance from Shanghai.
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17850667/
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EDITORS NOTES:  Citigroup is firing 15,000 employees, mostly effecting jobs in New York, London and Hong Kong, and these layoffs account for about 5 percent of the banks employees.  The Citigroup corporate and investment bank division might lose about 4,000 jobs, reports said.  But take note of the comment about high cost jobs (seems Citibank is mimicking the Circuit City playbook, albeit on a grander and cross border scale).  At the same time, chief executive Charles O. Prince said that India has been the single biggest driver of growth for the banks international operations (and of course they plan on doubling in size inside of mainland China).
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CHINA TO HALT ACCUMULATING FOREIGN RESERVES
Reuters News - March 21, 2007
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China will stop stockpiling its massive foreign exchange reserves, China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in an interview published Tuesday.  Many people say that foreign exchange reserves in China are already large enough, Zhou told the Emerging Markets magazine, whose latest issue was released at a meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank in Guatemala.  We do not intend to go further and accumulate reserves, Zhou said, adding the government will cut a small piece of reserves for a new agency to be set up for the management of its massive foreign reserves, which have swollen because of the trade surplus.  He did not say how much money would be passed to the agency.  China's premier, Wen Jiabao, said last week that plans to form a new agency to invest part of the country's swollen foreign exchange reserves, the world's biggest at more than $1 trillion, would not have an adverse impact on the U.S. dollar.  China's central bank also said last week it would not significantly adjust the composition of those reserves. A large part of them are denominated in dollars.  As the reserves have ballooned on the back of China's record trade surpluses, demands have grown for part of the hoard to be invested more aggressively.  Investors have long fretted over Beijing's plans to diversify its foreign exchange investments because of their potential impact on global markets.  Studies have shown investment by China and other Asian countries in U.S. bonds has reduced long-term American interest rates by as much as 2 percentage points.  The state of Chinese trade affects such companies as IBM, Wal-Mart and HSBC.
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http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-03/21/content_832848.htm
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IRAN LEADS ATTACK AGAINST US DOLLAR
By Jerome R. Corsi - Global Research, April 12, 2007
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While the world press has focused on Iran's plans to move ahead with enriching uranium, Tehran continues to wage economic war against the U.S. dollar behind the scenes.  Tehran has reached a decision to end all oil sales in dollars, according to statements by Iran's central bank governor, Ehrabhim Sheibany, in Kuala Lumpur at the end of last month.  Zhuhai Zhenrong Trading, a Chinese state-run company that buys 240,000 barrels of oil per day from Iran, approximately 10 percent of Iran's 2.2 million barrels per day total output, has confirmed a shift to the euro for its Iranian oil purchases.  About 60 percent of Iran's oil income is currently in non-dollar currencies, according to Hojjatollah Ghanimifard, who is responsible for international affairs for National Iranian Oil.  Even Japanese refiners who buy some 550,000 barrels of oil a day from Iran have indicated their willingness to buy Iran's oil in yen.  China, which buys approximately 12 percent of its crude oil supply from Iran, signed last year a long-term $100 billion deal with Iran to develop Iran's giant Yadvaran oil field. Estimates indicate China could draw 150,000 barrels of oil from the Yadvaran field for the next 25 years, assuring Iran's position as one of the major suppliers of oil to China for decades to come.  One possibility is that China may begin paying Iran for oil in yuans.  Meanwhile, China, which now holds $1 trillion in foreign reserve holdings, announced March 20 it will no longer accumulate foreign exchange reserves.  This is more bad news for the dollar, since approximately 70 percent of China's $1 trillion in foreign reserve holdings are held in U.S. dollar assets.  About half of China's foreign exchange U.S. assets are invested in U.S. treasuries, which are vital to financing the continuing U.S. federal budget deficits.
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http://www.globalresearch.ca/
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EURO HITS 2-YEAR HIGH VERSUS DOLLAR
By Matt Moore, Associated Press - April 18, 2007   
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The euro rose to a two-year high Wednesday but stopped short of hitting its all-time record, even as the British pound reached a 26-year high after breaking the $2 mark this week.  The rise of both currencies is an indication that Europe's economy is performing better than expected and not wavering amid fears of a slowdown in the United States and booming competition from China.  It also makes Europe more expensive for U.S. visitors, but shopping trips to the United States more enticing for Europeans.
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http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4726230.html
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DOOMSDAY FOR THE GREENBACK - By Mike Whitney - Global Research, April 11, 2007
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The American people are in La-la land. If they had any idea of what the Federal Reserve was up to they would be out on the streets waving fists and pitchforks. Instead, we go our business like nothing is wrong.  Are we really that stupid?  What is it that people don't understand about the trade deficit? Its not rocket science. The Current Account Deficit is over $800 billion a year. That means that we are spending more than we are making and savaging the dollar in the process. Presently, we need more than $2 billion of foreign investment per day just to keep the wheels from coming off the cart.  Everyone agrees that the current trade imbalances are unsustainable and will probably trigger major economic disruptions that will thrust us towards a global recession. Still, Washington and the Fed stubbornly resist any change in policy that might reduce over-consumption or reverse present trends.   The trade deficit puts downward pressure on the dollar and acts as a hidden tax. In fact, that is what it is--a tax! Every day the deficit grows, more money is stolen from the retirements and life savings of working class Americans. Its an inflation bombshell obscured by the bland rhetoric of free markets and deregulation.  Consider this: In 2002 the euro was $.87 on the dollar. Last Friday (4-6-07) it closed at $1.34-- a better than 50% gain for the euro in just 4 years. The same is true of gold. In April 2000, gold was selling for $279 per ounce. Last Friday, at the close of the market it skyrocketed to $679.50---more than double the price.  Gold is not going up; it is simply a meter on the waning value of the dollar. The reality is that the dollar is tanking big-time, and the main culprit is the widening trade deficit.  The demolition of the dollar is not accidental. The massive expansion of the Federal government, the un-funded tax cuts, the low interest rates and the steep increases in the money supply have all been carried out in full-view of the American people. Nothing has been hidden. These policies have had a devastating effect on the dollar, which has been slumping since Bush took office in 2000. Now that foreign purchases of US debt are dropping off, the greenback could plunge to even greater depths. There is really no way of knowing how far the dollar will fall.
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http://www.globalresearch.ca/
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EDITORS NOTES:  We have talked about this before.  Which is to ask, after a US reliance on foreigners and foreign nations to fund US Government borrowing - What if those foreigners decided to throw in the towel?  Indeed we reported in a recent newsletter issue that many central banks in other countries have already started to dump the greenback.  Now China is supposedly doing the same (and they are of course the Big Dog on the block, so to speak, in terms of how many US Dollars they are holding).  The above article speculates that lack of continued foreign willingness to lend could push domestic US interest rates up by 200 basis points, or lets just say that your 6 percent adjustable rate mortgage could become 8 percent based on what China does alone. 
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CHINA'S RISE INEVITABLE - KISSINGER - By Li Xing - April 3, 2007
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The United States and China should cooperate to face up a host of issues that challenge the world today, Dr Henry A. Kissinger, former US secretary of state, told the 800-plus scholars and students Tuesday, April 3, in Beijing.  During his speech, Kissinger, who made his first visit to China in 1971 on a secret trip that broke the ice frozen for some 20 years, couldn't help but share his amazement about the changes that have taken place in China.  China has developed in a manner that none of us could have imagined 35 years ago, he said. China has grown with the dedication of its people by its own effort.   He said he believed in China's rise. The rise of China is inevitable, and there is nothing we could do about it, he said.  There is nothing we could do to prevent it or should do to prevent.
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http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-04/03/content_842639.htm
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HOUSES CHEAPER THAN CARS IN DETROIT
Reuters - March 21, 2007
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With bidding stalled on some of the least desirable residences in Detroit's collapsing housing market, even the fast-talking auctioneer was feeling the stress.  After selling house after house in the Motor City for less than the $29,000 it costs to buy the average new car, the auctioneer tried a new line: The lumber in the house is worth more than that!  As Detroit reels from job losses in the US auto industry, the depressed city has emerged as a boomtown in one area: foreclosed property.  It also stands as a case study in the economic pain from a housing bust as analysts consider whether a developing crisis in mortgages to high-risk borrowers will trigger a slowdown in the broader US economy.  The rising cost of mortgage financing for Detroit borrowers with weak credit has added to the downdraft from a slumping local economy to send home values plunging faster than many investors anticipated a few months ago.  The city, which has lost more than half its population in the past 30 years and struggled with rising crime, failing schools and other social problems, largely missed out on the housing boom that swept much of the country in recent years.  Prices have gained less than 2 percent per year in the five years since 2001, when the auto industry entered a renewed slump.  Steve Izairi, 32, who re-financed his own house in suburban Dearborn and sold his restaurant to begin buying rental properties in Detroit two years, was concerned that houses he thought were bargains at $70,000 two years ago were now selling for just $35,000.  At least 16 Detroit houses up for sale on Sunday sold for $30,000 or less.  A boarded-up bungalow on the city's west side brought $1,300. A four-bedroom house near the original Motown recording studio sold for $7,000.  You can't buy a used car for that, said Izairi.  It's a gamble, and you have to wonder how low it's going to get.  Detroit, where unemployment runs near 14 percent and a third of the population lives in poverty, leads the nation in new foreclosure filings, according to tracking service RealtyTrac.  With large swaths of the city now abandoned, banks are reclaiming and reselling Detroit homes from buyers who can no longer afford payments at seven times the national rate.  Michigan was the only state to see home prices fall in 2006. The national average price rose almost 6 percent but prices slipped 0.4 percent here, according to a federal study.  The state's jobless rate of 7.1 percent in January was also the second highest in the nation, behind only Mississippi.  Realtor Ron Walraven had a three-bedroom house in the suburb of Bloomfield Hills that had listed for US$525,000 - sell for just US$130,000 at the auction.  Once we've seen the last person leave Michigan, then I think we'll be able to say we've seen the bottom, he said.
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http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2007-03/21/content_832825.htm
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EDITORS NOTES:  Cash will be king in this new economy, assuming that the government, inflation, or devaluation does not take it away from you (which should have you thinking at this point).  On the other hand, real estate in India is booming.  According to a recent news article from the International Herald Tribune:
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Goa, like much of India, is in the midst of a real estate frenzy, and Patrao, a man nearly 60, a veteran of the construction business in California and New York, is nothing if not an entrepreneur. His ambitions were fueled as much by his canny business sense as by Goa's enticements. The houses he imagined building would sell for at least $180,000, he reckoned, or more than twice the investment in the land and construction costs. Real estate, he figured, was the way to go in India. One billion people - Limited land supply. It's a no-brainer, he concluded.    
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http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/18/asia/web.0318-goa.php
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EDITORS NOTES (continued):  One million borrowers in the US are now (April 2007) either in foreclosure or are more than three months behind on their house payments as of the end of 2006.  Foreclosure filings in February rose 12 percent from a year ago, and as many as 2.4 million Americans may lose their homes because of the collapse of sub-prime lenders, according to estimates by the Center for Responsible Lending.  Depending upon which US Government and private statistics you look at, it has been estimated that up to 20 percent of the US population are comprised of the poor and the working poor - and those numbers are growing.  To borrow the phrase from Mr. Patrao from the above article - It's a no-brainer (where all of this is headed).  The ticking social time bomb is much more real than you think, and the resulting politics as well.  Which is to say, remember what happened the last time the US economy went south in a very big way (taxes went up, private gold holdings were confiscated, currency controls were put into place, and so on).  But, the economic picture does not look so bleak in other parts of the globe.  Maybe that is why Halliburton's CEO is moving the main office and himself to Dubai, along with a growing list of executives in other companies as well (perhaps getting out of Houston before you know what hits the you know what, which is another major US city facing a real estate correction).  Again, maybe one can read too much into certain things, and maybe my comments constitute a chicken little syndrome - but the world news and statistics are out there for you to make up your own mind. 
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HEAD OF KANSAS HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT FILES FOR BANKRUPCY
The Associated Press - April 10, 2007

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The head of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment and his wife have filed for personal bankruptcy, citing debts that include $60,000 in back taxes.  Roderick Bremby 47, and his wife, April, a Lawrence doctor, have a combined income of $204,533 a year, according to a bankruptcy filing in a Kansas City, Kan., federal court.  Bremby, who runs a $217 million state agency, said he and his wife are typical Americans who file for protection under the bankruptcy laws.  Bremby and his wife have nearly $600,000 in debts and $464,000 in assets, according to court records. He implied that the bankruptcy was caused in part by loss of income for medical reasons, but would not elaborate.  Rep. Brenda Landwehr, a Wichita Republican, said the personal bankruptcy is not a cause for concern if medical issues are to blame, but she would be concerned if it was caused by irresponsible spending.  Landwehr is chairwoman of the House Health and Human Services Committee, which oversees KDHE.  The bankruptcy filing shows that the couple owes more than $52,000 in federal income taxes from 2004 and 2005, about $3,800 in 2004 state income taxes and $4,600 in Douglas County property taxes.  Bremby is paid $8,197 a month as KDHE secretary; his wife makes $9,166 a month as a doctor for Sisters of Charity LVN Health System. Their monthly take-home pay is about $11,000, court records show.
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http://www.kansascity.com/116/story/65272.html
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EDITORS NOTES:  Hey, it is pretty scary stuff when a government official has to file for bankruptcy and is US$60,000 in the hole, and three years behind on Federal income taxes, plus State income and local municipal property taxes as well.  But it could happen to anyone - no?  Lets face it - it can be really difficult to get by on an after tax income of US$11,000 per month these days.  But two things here concern me.  First off, it is reported that the poor guy claims he got into trouble as a result of lost income due to medical reasons.  Medical Reasons?  He is the director of the state department of health - and his wife is a doctor for the Sisters of Charity.  But here is the real kicker.  He says he and his wife are typical Americans.  If the typical average American is going broke on an annual income of over US$200,000 per year, the country is in serious trouble.  Also, if the state director of health who has a wife that is a doctor (employed by the sisters of charity no less) cannot get help with medical costs - then how well would the average guy other there with no medical insurance fair out?  Something to think about, and something to be worried about if this indeed was (is) typical.    
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POVERTY AND POPULATION:  THE CRUCIAL LINKS
By Lester R. Brown - April 4, 2007
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The twenty-first century began on an inspiring note when the countries that belong to the United Nations adopted the goal of cutting the number of people living in poverty in half by 2015. And as of 2005, the world is ahead of schedule for reaching this goal. But not all regions are benefiting.  There are two big reasons for the apparent success: China and India. China's economic growth of 9 per cent a year over the last quarter-century and India's acceleration to close to 6 per cent a year over the last decade are together lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.  In China, the number of people living in poverty dropped from 648 million in 1981 to 218 million in 2001, the greatest reduction in poverty in history. India is also making impressive progress on the economic front. Under the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who took office in 2004, poverty is being attacked directly by upgrading infrastructure at the village level. Targeted investments are aimed at the poorest of the poor. If the international community actively reinforces this effort in reform-minded India, hundreds of millions more could be lifted out of poverty.
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http://www.peopleandplanet.net/
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EDITORS NOTES:  I will not bore you with the same old diatribe, BUT do take note of what is taking place.  In other words, I ask the question - Which countries, or we can also say which citizens, are starting to see a decline in regards to their standard of living and which countries are moving up the ladder?  Why are all the American Corporations hot and heavy over these so-called free trade agreements?  The answer is because that is where the money is, or that is where the people that still have money to buy things are located.  If some of the previous above articles are true, a whole lot of Americans are broke (or will be shortly), but it would seem that some citizens in previous Third World countries are moving up the economic ladder.    
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READERS WRITE IN:
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Dear Mr. Schroeder:  The USA's politicians have so refused to stop illegal aliens and even Greenspan says he thinks that skilled wages in the USA should fall.  There are several problems with this attitude:  1. The illegal aliens commit fraud and identity theft to work in someone else's name.  2. Damage and corruption in the business community. The businesses do not modernize because cheap labor is available. Many are reported as cheating the illegal aliens out of part of their pay. There are many pending cases where US companies, even those with the HB class visas for their workers are being prosecuted for chattel slavery.  High turnover because of low pay and poor working conditions, which are often also violations of US law, cause less time and effort to be spent learning the business which results in low efficiency and low competency of the workers.  Lower standards prevail and the quality of products and competitiveness falls.  3. Fraud and illegal presence lead to more frauds, of necessity to remain, and huge taxpayer legal bills when discovered.  Identity fraud costs hundreds of hours and thousands of dollars to correct when an illegal alien uses your identity to commit frauds.  4. Illegal aliens are a net drain on the economy because their low wages never cover the costs of public services for them and their families.  None of the low wage groups pay enough taxes to cover the public services provided.  5. It is often publicized that more than half of all immigrant families in the USA, legal and illegal receive public benefits- welfare, free schooling in schools for special needs from language to medical problems, free medical care, food stamps, translators and other benefits.  6. Most are from Mexico and demand racial preferences over native-born citizens.  This is discrimination against the native born citizens and increases resentment and divisions in the country.  7. The percentages are in dispute but the lowest is that immigrants who are in jail or prison or previously convicted of crimes are convicted at rates of more than 2.5 times that of the average of the native born.  8. Those who stay will also be paid social security and other benefits for which no money is being retained and invested.  9. The Hidden Cost of Illegal Workers, by DR Francis, CSmonitor.com March 19, 2007 and the speeches by David Walker, Comptroller of the Currency of the US show that it is NOT social security which is the biggest financial disaster for the USA but MEDICARE and especially MEDICAID which is the program which low wage workers, illegal aliens included, use. The costs of Medicaid have already bankrupted hundreds of hospitals and are the biggest budget problems for many states.  10. Already in some cities in the USA Mexicans have begun forcing, by threats, assaults, and murder native-born citizens of the USA out of their homes. Los Angeles calls it a gang war and hundreds have died.  But is it only a gang war when the neighborhoods support it?  Or is it the beginning of a war based on ethnic blocks?  It is too soon to be certain but as it has already spread to more than 20 cities, with great efforts to keep it out of the news, it looks more like a coming race war according to the motto of several Mexican organizations which when translated is: Everything for people of our race, nothing for those outside our race.  See La Mecha and the Spanish language pages, no not the English language pages, only the Spanish language pages.  US born blacks and others are already becoming afraid to be alone around groups of Spanish speaking people in many areas.  So whether the Congress passes legalization for illegal aliens or not the really important actions may happen on city streets.  It looks very likely to explode and the expected economic downturn will make many illegal aliens, particularly in construction jobs, which they dominate in some cities, unemployed and unneeded. What will happen then?
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EDITORS REPLY:  As always, thank you for your letter and comments.  The truth of the matter is, some people think I put these kinds of topics into the newsletter simply to complain for the simple sake of complaining, which to some extent, what is happening for example with the Lou Dobbs news program (I applaud the program, but there never seems to be any answers or resolutions to the questions and or complaints being presented).  Which is to say, I think it important to highlight and discuss certain issues, but it also equally and perhaps even more important to understand how politics, economics and social policies play out and affect your own personal life, and economic well-being, and then figure out what to do about it (if you will be negatively affected).  I am not xenophobic or anti-immigrant, nor have any animosity towards Latinos (how can I be when I live in a Latin American Spanish speaking country?).  But rather, my goal is, to get clients to think very seriously about what the future may hold economically and otherwise, and then figure out what they want to do about it.  My solution is to head for the exit, and I have certainly done myself what I discuss or advocate, but for some that is a radical move.  But, I do think it interesting to note the numbers of middle class and upper middle class Americans, Canadians and Europeans that are buying real estate in the Dominican Republic, Panama, Ecuador, and Argentina - whom are relocating lock, stock and barrel - just to name a few recipient countries in the Western hemisphere.  In other words, as I have said before, a case of trading places. 
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The real problem is that many, many middle class people both in Europe and the US feel that attaining and maintaining the traditional life-style they have become accused to previously, is becoming harder and more expensive.  Unfortunately, they do not understand why, or what they can do about it, and thus the goal of trying to develop an understanding of how and why certain policies (economic and political) do matter.  Better explained, as just one example, why the Chinese Government dumping US$1 Trillion US Dollars of currency reserves is indeed of interest to you.
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The fact is that with any economic policy (and we are looking at immigration issues strictly in economic terms) there are beneficiaries and those affected negatively.  There are interest groups as well pushing for certain agendas also, as there always is.  The problems facing the majority of the so-called modern, industrialized welfare states are demographic as it pertains to the health and viability of the welfare systems in these countries (a large percentage of the population is aged and approaching retirement, and there are simply not enough younger people on the back end, working and paying into the system as before).  We all know that these programs basically are wealth transfer programs and operate in essence as a Ponzi scheme.  Imagine a Conga Line that cannot keep going unless you keep adding new people at the tail end.  In brief, this is the goal of immigration policy and initiatives, be it formal policy, as the case with Spain (that has actively issued a large number of employment related visas in its former Latin American colonies) or informal policy, turning a blind eye towards illegal immigration, as I believe is the case in the US.  Which to say, the goal is to make up the short fall, or get new younger workers onto the tail end of the Conga line, so to speak.  And in the case in the US, we know that according to 2004 statistics, 10 percent of the Social Security Administration cash flow, or US$65 Billion Dollars, came in from illegal alien workers utilizing false or phony ID documents.  So, while a problem at one level is helped, a problem at another level is created or made worse.  Which is to say, this is all about pumping free cash into the Social Security system, but the local state governments are the entities getting stuck with higher public education and health care costs.  If you think all this is about helping poor Latinos get a slice of the American Dream, you are kidding yourself.  It is about the money, or getting free money we should say, into the welfare coffers.  In any event, all this sort of reminds me of the television announcements for prescription drugs.  Take a pill to supposedly remedy one health problem, but side effects include nausea, vomiting, dysentery, dementia, higher risk of cancer, and whatever else.  In other words, is the cure possibly worse than the disease?  In the case of any economic policy or issues (immigration, interest rates, government fiscal policy, and so on) it really all depends upon what side of the fence you are on.
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I find it very interesting to compare the Dominican Republic, as just one example, when it comes to illegal immigration issues.  I have often made the comment that Haiti is to the Dominican Republic as Mexico is to the US (and illegal Haitians in the DR, just as illegal Mexicans in the US, do much of the agricultural and lower level construction work).  But, the real difference is how these two governments handle things (talking about the Dominican Republic and the US).  Which is to say, there certainly is no way near the level of social welfare programs in the Dominican Republic as they exist in the US or Europe, and aside from that, illegal immigrants are effectively barred from the public health and public education system (of course if they do choose to apply for legal residency, they certainly can do so, if they wish).  Now, you might think that to be cruel and certainly the various so-called human rights organizations based out of the very same wealthy welfare state countries have cried foul.  BUT, who has a severe government budgetary problem in terms of public education and health care?  Is it fair to force legal residents and local citizens to subsidize public services for illegal immigrants?  When other foreign governments decide NOT to go down the same path as the North American and European countries, they are of course derided.  But who really is being more foolish in terms of long-term costs to taxpayers and the society one is trying to supposedly save?  In Paris, France it has been estimated that 40 percent of the immigrant Muslim population is unemployed and on the welfare dole.  Who is to blame?  Is this the fault of the immigrants themselves, or the politicians that allow it?  At least in the case of the US, the common consensus is that illegal immigrant Mexicans are there to work.
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In any event, I always encourage people to read, investigate and connect the dots, so to speak.  Problems with US illegal immigration is not about immigration at all, but rather something else, just as many other projects, policies and initiatives have a plethora of end goals and agendas that of course are never publicly discussed.  All of these things, such as globalization, immigration matters, outsourcing of jobs, free trade agreements, and many other topics are more interrelated than you might think.  The real question is NOT why any government is going down this path (we know why, or we can figure it out if we take the time), or why they seemingly are doing nothing about certain complaints by the middle-class (doing nothing is in fact doing something when you think about it).  In fact, I think much of this complaining is a waste of time and personal resources, as the average person does NOT have the financial ability or time to fight it.  On the contrary, I do think the key question is, knowing what you know, and knowing how some of these issues may affect you down the road - what do you want to do about it?  Do you want you want to continue writing letters to politicians or making phone calls to talk radio programs?  Or do you want to do something that may offer some real, tangible and concrete benefit?  Such as making sure you have assets denominated in another currency to protect against devaluation, or considering other ideas and opportunities for the long -term benefit of yourself and your family.  Everyone has the right to make decisions or take actions (legally of course) to safeguard ones economic future.  The problem is though, it would seem that what large corporations and some wealthy individuals have already done are being made off limits to the middle class.  That of course tells you something as well.
© Ascot Advisory Services 2007

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