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Is Gold Ready To Make A Comeback?
They
say gold is the only true money. Better said, unlike fiat paper
money, the only true form of currency value that the politcians cannot
screw around with. Is something old, such as gold, new
again?
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Can it be that something as old and time tested as gold has finally
made a comeback? Well, the truth of the matter is that it never
went away. Gold has been used for centuries as a medium for
exchange, or in other words, as money. Aside from that, gold has
also been used as a way to hold or store wealth as well. In fact,
gold has historically been just one of the many commodities or assets
people have held onto as a hedge against paper money inflation.
Why are many people thinking about gold once again and why has the
price been rising over the past few years? Why has gold been
called - The Peoples Money?
.
To answer some of these questions, we think it to be important to
understand what is going on right now in the world (economically
speaking) and what has happened in the past as well. So, to work
our way back in history, it is important to note that while some
governments have played around with fiat paper money for some time (the
Chinese first experimented with fiat paper money about 1,400 years
ago), gold has always been the money standard, so to speak. Where
as man started off with a barter system as way to exchange goods and
services for value, eventually this lead to the use of other things as
a form of money - shells, beads, cattle, and so on. Eventually,
it was decided that the most portable, valuable and easiest commodity
to be used as a means of money, was precious metal (gold, silver and
palladium or platinum). The term precious does not refer to any
aesthetic beauty (although refined and polished objects made out of
these metals can be quite attractive), but rather the term really
refers to the fact that these metals are in short supply relative to
all other kinds of metals (copper, iron ore, etc.) and therefore more
valuable. As a result, they represented an almost perfect choice
as a store of value, or money for the society.
.
So, paper money was not the original choice of man for money - it was
gold and for good reason. In fact, fiat paper money, or money not
backed by any physical commodity at all (which is what fiat really
means) did not start off that way. Paper money actually has its
origins in paper gold deposit receipts issued by banks or special gold
deposit warehouses. Which is to say, some people found it to be a
bit inconvenient to haul around quantities of gold (gold is heavy) in
order to conduct business or make purchases. Not only that, of
course having large stores of gold in your home could offer up the risk
that it might be stolen. So, the idea of a depository or
warehouse was created. In fact, this really was the precursor to
the modern bank we know of today. Citizens, would then deposit
their gold in this gold bank, for lack of a better term, and simply
exchange receipts. These receipts sort of acted like checks, in
that someone could sign over the receipt to someone else. That
other person could physically go down to the bank and withdraw the gold
if they wanted, or also simply turn it over to someone else yet
again. This is really where the current modern idea of paper as
an exchange or money medium came about. The paper itself
represented a deposit of gold held on deposit somewhere, but there was
some physically commodity (gold) as a backing.
.
THE PROBLEM WITH GOVERNMENTS AND POLITICIANS
.
Exploring the original idea of gold being used as money, and more
precisely minted gold coins, it was true that were various different
smelters or private minting firms that actually created the one ounce,
half ounce or whatever other domination of coins or bullion bars that
existed. However, one ounce of gold was indeed one ounce of
gold. It really did not matter who took the raw gold metal and
fashioned it into a bar or coin, providing it was indeed one ounce of
pure gold. In this regard, one ounce of pure gold minted by one private
company was as good as one ounce of pure gold from any other.
. Politicians
of course got the bright idea that THEY alone should
control, regulate and issue the coinage process, thus standardizing the
gold coin used through out the country or territory. The Romans
were of course the first to do this on a grand organized scale, and
they were also really the first to play games as well. Meaning,
Roman Emperors, in order to increase the assets or wealth of the state
coffers, got the idea of slightly reducing the gold content or amount
of gold in each one-ounce coin. At first, they shaved a bit off
each coin, thus the result being a one ounce coin that weighted
slightly less than one ounce, but not enough for the public to take
notice. Of course, if you shave a fraction of an ounce off of
millions of these coins, it adds up. Over time, the Roman
Emperors became bolder and bolder, and started to mix lead or other
base metals into the coins to reduce the gold content. The result
of this was that the coin still could weigh one ounce, but it was NOT
one ounce of pure gold. So, over time, the state figured out a
way to cheat the general public and debase the money supply - making it
less valuable and thus creating price inflation as a result. So,
even going back 2,000 years inflation was a problem also, even with
gold coins in circulation as a medium of exchange. Interestingly
enough though, the problem was not the use of gold, but rather the
state and how they were tempted to debase the money supply - which is
the same problem we have today as well.
.
This of course is a very important point in terms of governments,
central banks, politicians, and when government has a monopoly over the
issuance of money, be it gold or paper. Which is to say, the
tendency of government is almost always to debase the money supply or
inflate the money supply in order to pay its own debts or
expenses. It is of course far easier politically for a government
to simply reduce the gold content of coins, or simply print more paper
money rather than asking citizens to turn over more money in the form
of taxes. In fact, the citizens are often not even aware of the
inflation until after the fact, making it a sort of conniving stealth
tax after the fact. For this reason also, inflation is often
referred to as a hidden tax against the population because just as with
collected taxes, it reduces the spendable worth or assets of the
citizenry and the culprit often enough is government in terms of how
they manage (or not manage) the money supply.
.
.
GOLD AS A REGULATOR AND STABILZER
.
We have just stated that governments are usually the culprits of
inflation in terms of what they do (or not do) when it comes to the
money supply that they alone control. However, this is not to say
that inflation under a gold-based system cannot occur for other
reasons. In the United States (and the world in general) from the
period of about 1860 through 1890, gold coins were used a medium of
exchange and bank notes or certificates were gold backed.
However, during this period there was indeed price inflation. The
question is why? Well, during this period there existed an
unusual number of new gold discoveries made in Alaska, South Africa and
other parts of the world. This increased the supply of gold or
the amount of gold in circulation as a result. Presumably more
gold was discovered and put into circulation than was compatible with the rate of
economic growth, and therefore - inflation.
.
However, generally speaking, it is much more difficult to experience
high inflation under a gold standard (gold backed paper money) or via
the use of pure gold coins in commerce. The reason is of course
it is not so easy to produce new quantities of it. You first must
incur an expense to explore for it, then you must incur and expense to
get it out of the ground, and finally it of course costs something to
refine it and reshape it into coins or whatever. Apart from all
that, these things take time. Under a fiat paper money system, you do
not have to do all that - you simply run the printing presses.
Can you see how easy and tempting it would be for a politician to do
this? Who would know, until after the fact of course? So,
the government can of course simply print more paper or create new
money out of thin air and pay people with it, with the person receiving
it thinking it is worth something when in reality over time, it becomes
worth less and less as prices go up to compensate. Using a system
of gold back currency (paper money backed and redeemable in gold) or
using actual gold itself as a medium can prevent the excessive and
unwarranted kinds of inflation we have seen over the past 30 years
(when the US went off the gold standard completely).
.
THE ARGUMENT FOR GOLD TODAY
.
It used to be the case prior to 1933 in the United States, that private
citizens could redeem paper money for gold. Part of President
Roosevelt's so-called New Deal was a raw deal for anyone one that did
own gold at that time or US dollars as well, as all gold was ordered
confiscated in 1993. In addition, gold ownership by private US
citizens (with the exception of jewelry and similar ornamental items)
remained to be illegal up until January 1, 1975 (legislation was passed
by then US President Gerald Ford that allowed for private ownership
once again). However, also in conjunction with the private gold
confiscation of 1933, US citizens could no longer present paper money
in exchange for physical gold as well, but central banks of other
nations were still allowed to do so. That changed in 1971 when
President Richard Nixon, after seeing US gold stocks depleting rapidly
from foreign banks actually redeeming for physical gold, promptly
closed the gold window for foreign central banks as well. The
result - the Arab Oil Embargo. Why? Because those nations
producing oil we not very pleased with the idea of accepting paper in
exchange for the commodity (oil) they were selling. They wanted
something of value for their oil and not paper, but rather gold.
The result was an embargo and cut back on production by the oil
producing nations. The solution and what ended the embargo was
the agreement that oil prices could rise in order to offset the paper
inflation that would result. So, just so you know, the so-called
oil shortage of the 1970s was no shortage and it was not about oil - it
was about gold, or a change in payment taking gold out of the picture.
. Today
of course we are now really faced with an oil shortage in the
sense that oil is running out. A gentleman by the name of King
Hubert, a geologist for Shell Oil Company, published a theory on the
depletion of finite resources like fossil fuels. Now commonly known as
Hubert's peak, his theory explains that production rates of oil and gas
will increase to a peak and then rapidly taper off as reserves are
depleted. This theory or report was presented about 50 years ago,
and the target date for when this would happen: about 2005 -
2012, give or take a few years. The bottom line or point is, if a
very important commodity, such as oil, is now reaching a point of
depletion, and if demand remains high, the ultimate result will be
higher and higher prices for petroleum going forward. And, the
result of that (since the cost or price of oil affects just about every
part of the economy) will be continued price inflation to one degree or
another going forward. Aside from this, which for all non oil
producing nations really is a foreign commodity influence, there might
be other issues that could add to the problem as well (excessive
government debt, spiraling budget deficits, future unfunded liabilities
such as government pension schemes, etc., etc.).
. So, the group of questions for someone to consider are as follows:
.
Do you think inflation is a problem that will not go away, or do you
think that your government is seriously interested in cutting expenses,
not spending more than what they are taking in - AND will they NOT be
tempted to print more paper money than what is necessary going forward?
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Do you think other commodity prices, such as the price of oil, will be going up or down in the future?
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Do you think whatever the rate of inflation, will your salary or income
increase to keep pace, or will it be more likely prices could riser
higher than your earnings?
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In terms of other looming government expenses, such as Social Security,
do you think the politicians seriously want to tackle the problem
today, or will they push it off until it is too late? Will they
simply elect to print even more worthless paper to solve the problem at a later date?
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These are just a few questions, but important ones to determine what
you think the economic future, and more precisely YOUR economic futures
holds in store. However, gold has always been called the peoples
money, as anyone can own gold, and it is a commodity not in the
exclusive control of governments either. In fact, everyone should
probably
own some gold, as it is the oldest form or true money around, and it is
the one thing the politicians cannot control or inflate as a
result. Historically speaking, as paper money loses value
(inflation) - gold along with other kinds of assets such as real estate
do have the tendency to act as a hedge - rising in value in tandem to
keep pace.
.
Of course there are some drawbacks to keeping large amounts of your
wealth in gold. The most obvious is that gold does not offer the
chance for interest to be earned, and there might even be storage costs to safeguard it. There are ways of course to
loan gold, but this is neither practical nor very convenient for the
average investor to do. However owning gold can be part of an
overall anti-inflation plan and can be an ideal alternative to holding
fiat paper money. Remember: Gold is Global. It trades
virtually round the clock, all over the world. It is liquid, and
is accepted everywhere. It can be difficult to have your current
fiat paper money accepted in another country - but gold truly is
universal and if the one form of money accepted in all countries.
.
For more information about owning gold, please feel free to visit the following: .
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